Week Four handicapping column

I've begun a new weekly handicapping feature, something I've dubbed "Beauty vs. the Beast." The premise: I ask a sportsbook which team has generated the most betting action and which club has drawn the least betting action in a given week. I'll then make mythical wagers on both, track the results and see how both kinds of bets fare throughout the season.

In Week Three, the "Beast" was the Chiefs, 14½-point underdogs at the MGM Resorts International sportsbooks. The Chiefs covered. The "beauty?" The Lions, who pushed as three-point favorites.

As a handicapper, I've probably been more of a "beast" guy. I don't mind backing a club with shaky recent form if the price is right and I believe improvement is likely.

As you can see below, I'm doing quite a bit of this in Week Four.

On to the picks:

Pittsburgh (+4) at Houston

The Texans opened as two-point favorites at the Las Vegas Hilton on Sunday night. By Monday night, however, the prevailing line around Nevada had reached this level. Ted Sevransky, a professional bettor, tweeted Wednesday that Houston was one club that sharp bettors had backed early in the week.

I respect the logic behind backing the Texans — whom I picked to win the AFC in the preseason. They could easily be 3-0 if not for trouble holding a fourth-quarter lead at New Orleans (and some blown opportunities earlier in the game). The Steelers, who were surprisingly pushed to the limit by the Colts on Sunday night, have major offensive line and running game concerns. Moreover, though Pittsburgh has the NFL's top pass defense on a yards-allowed basis, attacking the Steelers with the pass is preferable to running on their stout front seven, and the Texans have a strong passing game.

That said, I'm taking the points. It's rare to get this many points with an established power still in reasonably good form, and I don't believe there's a completely airtight case for Houston. After all, the Texans' pass defense really faltered late vs. the Saints, and the Steelers' passing offense is one of their top assets. What's more, while the Texans' defense is improved, it simply does not have Pittsburgh's track record of success. Nor is it as good from top to bottom.

Wilkening's pick: Pittsburgh

Carolina (+6) at Chicago

Considering how poorly the Bears played for portions of their losses to the Saints and Packers, I can see why Chicago isn't favored by seven. At that price, I probably would look elsewhere.

And against better competition, I would be leery of picking Chicago at all right now. Their first two losses of 2011 stack them behind the NFC's elite.

However, the Bears can give certain opponents fits. And here's one that looks more their speed. The Panthers, albeit playing on a rain-soaked field for the majority of the game, got all they could handle from a game Jacksonville club on Sunday and won just 16-10.

The Bears' defense did not play well against Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers in successive weeks, but it should bounce back against the Panthers, whose rookie quarterback, Cam Newton, figures to have a tough time against this veteran, playmaking, turnover-forcing group in a tough setting. Also, the Panthers' defense also appears vulnerable. Though it held the Jaguars to just 4.5 yards per play, it was allowing 7.7 yards per game entering Week Three. I'll side with the Bears. 

Wilkening's pick: Chicago

Buffalo at Cincinnati (O/U 44)

To me, the side you take on this total depends on your view on Cincinnati, not Buffalo. Buffalo's offense is potent. Its defense is, well, permissive.

Then we have the Bengals, who are a strong third in yards allowed per game but a week removed from a weak eight-point performance vs. San Francisco. Overall, the Bengals have gained the eighth-fewest yards in the NFL.

Cincinnati doesn't lack for concerns on offense. QB Andy Dalton and WR A.J. Green struggled in Week Three. WR Jerome Simpson had one catch vs. the Niners and is embroiled in off-field controversy. RB Cedric Benson had almost more rushing yards in the Bengals' opener (121) as he has the past two games (123).

Nevertheless, the Bengals scored 27 points in Week One and 22 points in Week Two; another performance in that range is certainly within their scope when facing a Buffalo defense allowing 387.3 yards per game.

At first glance, this total looked about a point too low. And the more I've considered it, the more the Over has appealed to me. The Bills will get their points, and perhaps a bushel of them, and the Bengals should be able to improve upon last week's performance.

Wilkening's pick: Over 44

Atlanta at Seattle (O/U 38½)

Here's another total that has dropped to a level that has caught my attention. When these teams met last December, Atlanta won 34-18, but the Seahawks were competitive early before three turnovers to start the second half tilted the game in the Falcons' favor.

Only one Seahawks game has gone Over this season, and Seattle has scored all of six points in 90 first-half minutes to begin the campaign, but WR Sidney Rice's debut helped the passing game in Week Three, and Seattle could show more offensive improvement in the second of back-to-back home games. The Falcons' attack also has been a little scattershot, but certainly, Atlanta has the talent needed to improve.

Wilkening's pick: Over 38½

Last week: 1-3
Season to date: 6-6

Source: http://www.profootballweekly.com/2011/09/29/week-four-handicapping-column-3

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