Non-AQ Bowl Projections

Those who have followed my bowl projections since Week 1 know that I had Boise State in the BCS national title game from the very beginning. I took the Broncos out a few weeks ago when TCU leapfrogged them to No. 3 in the BCS standings. But after a 51-0 route of Fresno State and the way the Broncos have inched closer, I have placed Boise State back in the title game. No offense to TCU, but playing 1-10 New Mexico is going to hurt while Boise State takes on Nevada. If the Broncos dominate the way they did against the Bulldogs, they will climb back in front. I am still projecting an Auburn loss to pave the way for a non-AQ in the title game.

I do have TCU in a BCS game as an at-large team, but I still think there is a 50-50 chance one of the undefeated non-AQs gets left out. Should Alabama beat Auburn, there is a very real possibility that the Crimson Tide would be taken for a BCS game over undefeated TCU/Boise State. An 11-1 LSU team could also trump undefeated TCU/Boise State�as well. The reason -- money and prestige. Both teams would travel more fans and bring better TV ratings. SEC generally trumps non-AQ.

But I am clinging to faith in the system. Why? I have no idea. I should not have faith in a system that fails to reward undefeated teams for their accomplishments. But as TCU coach Gary Patterson said earlier this week, it would be a travesty for an undefeated non-AQ to get left out. Let's hope the bowl officials and BCS officials realize that.

Points to remember: If a non-AQ makes it into the BCS title game versus Oregon, the Rose Bowl is not required to take an at-large non-AQ to fill its open Pac-10 spot. Also, these predictions serve as my projection of what is going to happen in the postseason, not what should happen.

As for the other non-AQ conferences, I still have UCF winning C-USA over SMU, FIU winning the Sun Belt and Northern Illinois taking the MAC over Ohio. There are questions about whether the SEC would block C-USA from the Liberty Bowl because of the complicated tie-ins with those two leagues and the Big East. I am predicting the Big East will not have enough teams to make it in there, and the SEC will. With Notre Dame now bowl eligible, Miami (Ohio) stays home in these projections.

BCS National Championship Game: Oregon vs. Boise State

Allstate Sugar:Auburn vs. TCU

Kraft Fight Hunger: Boston College vs. Nevada

GoDaddy.com: Ohio vs. Troy

AutoZone Liberty:UCF vs. Kentucky

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces: SMU vs. Army

Military Bowl Presented By Northrop Grumman: Maryland vs. Southern Miss

AdvoCare V100 Independence: Georgia Tech vs. Air Force

Little Caesars: ULM vs. Northern Illinois

Sheraton Hawaii: Tulsa vs. Hawaii*

S.D. County Credit Union Poinsettia: San Diego State vs. Navy*

MAACO Las Vegas: Utah vs. Tennessee

Beef 'O' Brady's St. Petersburg: Connecticut vs. East Carolina

R+L Carriers New Orleans:� UTEP vs. FIU

uDrove Humanitarian: Temple vs. Fresno State

New Mexico: BYU vs. Toledo

* indicates school accepted bowl bid.

Source: http://espn.go.com/blog/ncfnation/post/_/id/33475/non-aq-bowl-projections-8

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