Del Pilar's Digest: Position battles and player analysis

As position battles wind down, fantasy drafts heat up. We're now entering a period that will settle who wins a starting job and figure out who we should draft. Let's break it down by position, as there are too many battles to waste intro ink on.

QUARTERBACKS

Tarvaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst, Seahawks

No matter how well you know an offense, if you're not good, you're not good. Jackson struggles with his decision making and has not shown marked improvement this preseason. Jackson is 27-for-48 passing (56.3 percent) for 181 yards and one touchdown with a 62.9 passer rating. Whitehurt is 33-for-47 passing (70.2 percent) for 265 yards, one touchdown and a passer rating of 91.2.

Whitehurst is receiving praise from head coach Pete Carroll, who says he might have to revisit the starting QB job. In Jackson's defense, the team has offensive-line problems and has struggled in pass protection. Meanwhile, Whitehurst has been playing mostly against second-string defenders.

Don't draft either one but monitor how they do in season. I view Whitehurst as the better option but don't believe either QB is fantasy-worthy. 

Matt Cassel, Chiefs                                                             

Cassel is picking up where he left off last year which is not good. The Chiefs ended last season with two ugly losses: a 31-10 home loss to the Raiders and a 30-7 thrashing by the Ravens in the wild-card playoffs. Cassel completed 20-of-51 passes for 185 yards, zero touchdowns and five interceptions in those two games. Plus, Charlie Weis has departed and no longer is his coordinator.

Head coach Todd Haley is taking camp slowly and building up his players while working on conditioning. He believes the team is on track, and if you look at where the Chiefs were and where he has taken them, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. That's because you can't judge any team based on its preseason. The Chiefs aren't about preseason wins as much as learning the offense and their roles.

However, Cassel has been inconsistent, and until the offense begins to click you should pass on him. If you get "stuck" with him as your No. 2 fantasy quarterback, it's not the end of the world as he has some upside.  

Monitor the situation and if he shows improvement, which he will as the season progresses, then he becomes a viable fantasy backup with spot-starter ability. Rookie WR Jonathan Baldwin is out with an injured thumb and free-agent signee Steve Breaston needs to develop chemistry with Cassel and the rest of the team. I can see Cassel making great improvement by the midway point of the season.

Matt Ryan, Falcons

Though there have been growing pains, the addition of rookie WR Julio Jones and another year of maturation have helped Ryan look sharp. The team was shotgun-heavy, with Ryan throwing 42 passes, in their third preseason game to work on the aerial attack and two-minute offense. We saw Jones blow past defenders and know he will stretch this offense. The Falcons also have a slot receiver in Harry Douglas who is now 100 percent healthy. He's also the player Ryan has said is waiting to bust out. 

RB Michael Turner does not have to carry this team and it has the most balance since head coach Mike Smith took over. The play-calling will be more aggressive as the Falcons' offseason goal was to become more explosive. Ryan's ADP (average draft position) of 100 puts him in Round Nine in a 12-team league, a great pick as a low-end No. 1 fantasy quarterback.

 News of note …

• Chad Henne, Dolphins: Henne has improved the past couple weeks after looking average at best. The team is showing confidence in his ability to change plays on the fly and exploit a defense's weaknesses by giving him the power to call audibles. He's still only a marginal fantasy quarterback and not worth a roster spot. This season will make or break Henne, and if he takes the next step, next season he will have fantasy value.
• Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers: Big Ben has been sharp this preseason. Project a full 16-game season instead of the 12 games he played in 2010, he would have had 4,267 passing yards, 23 touchdowns and only seven picks. Impressive, but toss in his rushes and, over 16 games, he would have gained 235 rushing yards and three touchdowns. His play hasn't missed a beat and the emerging Antonio Brown as a wideout in place of Emmanuel Sanders (foot) gives Big Ben a full receiving complement. Roethlisberger once again will be lights out. His ADP of 75 (Round Seven in a 12-team league) shows that he is currently undervalued. If you don't grab an elite quarterback, he is an acceptable alternative.
• Matthew Stafford, Lions: Stafford had an outstanding third preseason game as he ran the no-huddle, three-deep offense and was accurate. The offensive line was solid in protecting him despite allowing one hard shot. The Lions had a four-game winning streak at the end of last season and now they have momentum heading into the season. Stafford's a low-end fantasy quarterback who is going where he should with an ADP of 102, the ninth round in a 12-team league. A great value pick.
• Kevin Kolb, Cardinals: Kolb is looking sharp and is establishing a connection with WR Larry Fitzgerald. In their third preseason game, the Cardinals still need work, but fantasy owners are enjoying Kolb's ability to make big plays and keep drives moving. In a weak division, Kolb should post solid numbers, making him a low-end fantasy starter. His ADP of 170 (Round 15 in a 12-team league) shows he's a value pick.
• Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick, 49ers: Smith is not having a great preseason and, at best, you can call his play "average." This team has problems in pass protection. Until that improves, it's going to be a long season impacting both the quarterback and receivers. Smith is not draftable as it's a new offense, a bad preseason and history tells us to stay away from him. Kaepernick? He's too raw and is not ready to start.
• Cam Newton and Jimmy Clausen, Panthers: This is a one-way battle and we've heard nothing but coach speak by head coach Ron Rivera. Expect Newton to be the starter as Clausen has done nothing to distinguish himself. Newton's starting the final preseason game, making it three consecutive preseason starts with the first unit. However, neither young QB is draftable.
• Blaine Gabbert and David Garrard, Jaguars: Neither quarterback is playing well but Garrard is a veteran who knows this offense. However, he's not playing well, thus limiting the upside of the wideouts and tight ends. Neither is draftable with a run-first offense and unproven wideouts.
• Terrelle Pryor, Raiders: I don't care about Pryor, as he's not in the picture this season, but dynasty league owners who believe he can play in the NFL should grab and stash him. He's raw and his legs alone won't bring the Raiders victories as much as they will fantasy points.

 

RUNNING BACKS

Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller, Bills

Jackson has done nothing wrong in his battle to start. His only failure is not being a top-10 overall pick in 2010 like Spiller was. Head coach Chan Gailey has yet to name a starter but both players have started and played against first-teamers.

Spiller has 12 attempts for 34 yards, zero touchdowns with four receptions for 27 yards and no touchdowns. Jackson is clearly outplaying him, rushing 16 times for 85 yards but no touchdowns. That gives him an impressive 5.3 yards per carry to Spiller's 2.8. Jackson also has three receptions for 43 yards and zero TDs.

Jackson should win the starting job and you should pass on Spiller. However, the Bills have a questionable offensive line and the RB job will be a time-share. Jackson's ADP of 54 (Round Five in a 12-team draft ) is too rich for me.

Derrick Ward, Texans 

I just wrote last week if you had to grab someone to back up RB Arian Foster (hamstring) go with Ward but that he was looking over his shoulder at a younger and stronger Ben Tate.

When Foster went down with his hamstring, the first running back off the bench was Ward. Foster will not miss much time and Ward might be the backup today but keep an eye on Tate who has been improving weekly and is younger and stronger.

In larger leagues, take a shot on Tate and stash him away. I saw one league where one owner took both Ward and Tate to hedge his bets. If you want to be safe, this is a good move but it limits your roster. I solve it by drafting Adrian Peterson and ignoring Foster, who needs to show me he can do what he did in 2010 for more than one season.

Tim Hightower, Roy Helu, Ryan Torain, Redskins

The team is raving about Hightower's camp since coming over from Arizona via trade, and his ability to press to the hole, draw defenders and make decisive cuts. In fact, head coach Mike Shanahan all but named Hightower the starter, and many reports are raving on how he fits the team's stretch-zone rushing attack.

Ryan Torain, supposedly in a battle, is fragile and injury-prone. He just returned to practice from a broken hand but at this point it's probably a foregone conclusion it's Hightower's job to lose. Helu is going to be a home-run threat with some plays designed for him. His role will be that of a scatback and third-down back, which limits his role.

What is surprising is seeing Torain going with an ADP of 60, which is higher than Hightower and his ADP of 117 (Round 10 in a 12-team league). It's a no-brainer, Hightower's a sleeper candidate. Helu is going with an ADP of 181 (Round 16 in a 12-team league). In larger leagues, he's worth the flier.

Kendall Hunter, 49ers

Hunter might be leap-frogging No. 2 Anthony Dixon, who dances too much for a man his size. He should be playing bigger at 250 pounds, hitting the holes with authority. He's not doing that while the diminutive but powerful Hunter is showing the coaching staff he has playmaking ability. During the preseason, Dixon has gained 84 yards on 27 attempts (3.1 avg.) and Hunter has 174 yards on 24 carries (7.3 avg.) with one touchdown. If you want to be safe, grab Dixon but I'm not sure he can do much if forced to start. I'm handcuffing Hunter because this is a new regime with no loyalty to anyone it did not draft. 

Cedric Benson, Bengals

Benson pleaded no contest to assault charges from a May 2010 incident and was given a 20-day jail sentence with a $4,000 fine. He will go into jail after the Bengals' Week Six game and be incarcerated during the team's bye week. With good behavior, he could have his sentence reduced to a week.

He's a solid running back but on a bad team with a rookie quarterback and a rookie wideout playing the No. 1 role. The team will lean on Benson until its passing game improves. Look for Benson to struggle early. His ADP of 62 (Round Six in a 12-team league) is acceptable, but that's too early for me.

In other news...

• Adrian Peterson, Vikings: Peterson's my No. 1 overall pick. Proven and capable of lasting a full season, he's your safest bet right now. Over the past few seasons, I have been on record saying that Peterson's improving pass-receiving skills are turning him into a complete back. Now the team has come out and said that he will be a heavy part of the passing attack. He's averaging a little less than 40 receptions the past two seasons.
• Beanie Wells, Cardinals: Wells, who has a final opportunity to show he is the real deal with rookie Ryan Williams (knee) gone out the season, had a solid outing during the Week Three preseason games. Williams was getting solid reviews and with Wells' character and injury history, many believed the former Ohio State star was on his way out. However, Wells is responding and has shown improvement in every preseason game to total 129 yards on 27 rush attempts (4.8 avg.). He has an ADP of 78 (Round Seven in a 12-team league), which is a great spot for a featured back. Head coach Ken Whisenhunt has said that whichever back they add via free agency will only complement Wells.
• Ryan Grant and James Starks, Packers: I wrote last week about how Starks was outplaying Grant at practice and hitting the hole with power and explosiveness. Nothing has changed; however, this is a team that relies on the arm of QB Aaron Rodgers and, as an example, the Packers dropped back to pass 55 times to 19 runs in the third preseason game. Regardless of whether Grant or Starks wins the starting job, this will be a RB-by-committee and head coach Mike McCarthy is likely to go with the hot hand. Let both running backs pass you by but if you do target one of the two, go with Starks. He has an ADP of 114 (Round 10 in a 12-team league) versus Grant's ADP of 56 (Round Five in a 12-team league). That's too high for Grant and makes Starks a potential sleeper.
• Justin Forsett and Leon Washington Seahawks: Marshawn Lynch is set to be the featured back with both Forsett and Washington complementing him. However, Forsett is losing touches to Washington because the team wants to use Washington's skills in the backfield, and it makes sense. As a return man, the rules are going to limit Washington's potential so it's logical for the team to find ways to use him. Regardless, I believe Forsett is still the handcuff you want regardless of what happens. Washington cannot carry the load.
• Chester Taylor, Bears: Taylor is still a Bear, for now. However, it's just a matter of time before the team cuts him as he has no value outside of being solid in pass protection. He will not be on the Bears and he shouldn't be on any fantasy rosters.

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

Kenny Britt, Titans

Britt's owners got some great news when it was revealed that Britt will avoid suspension by the NFL after multiple arrests in the offseason. He's also back practicing after missing time with a hamstring injury and says he's about 90-95 percent healthy. When healthy, Britt can produce and I like his upside based on his talent. QB Matt Hasselbeck has been having a solid preseason and I expect him to develop chemistry with Britt and make an impact. If Chris Johnson (holdout) comes back or Javon Ringer (hip) gets healthy to help keep a defense honest, that will help Britt's numbers and warrant his ADP of 61 (Round Six in a 12-team draft). That's about 20 picks, or about two rounds, too early for me but I can't argue his value. I would hold off on him unless he began to drop despite his potential.

Chad Ochocinco, Patriots

Ochocinco is struggling but it's not for a lack of trying as he and Tom Brady have taken time to try to build chemistry. This offense can be more "on-the-fly" than the one he knew in Cincinnati — in other words, he needs to improve his ability to adjust. He has had a horrible preseason but he works too hard not to get it eventually. He could be someone to target and trade for if he starts the season slow. His ADP of 78 puts him in Round Seven of a 12-team league. I like Chad, but not enough to make him my No. 2 fantasy receiver.

Greg Little, Browns

Little was briefly a starting wideout but he's too big and talented not to be the physical receiver they need. However, Mohamed Massaquoi is back practicing, putting Little back with the second team again. Brian Robiskie, as unimpressive as he has been, is still a starter. I like Little down the road but not this season. He has to learn how to play in the NFL and in a complicated offense. Pass by him on draft day but keep an eye on him once the season gets under way.

 

TIGHT ENDS

Aaron Hernandez, Patriots

Hernandez is another tight end who has looked very good in the preseason. Rob Gronkowski is more of a blocking tight end and red-zone target, so Hernandez should see a greater amount of targets. Reports show that he's in a mismatch a couple of times per game and QB Tom Brady will not hesitate to exploit that. Hernandez leads all receivers with 14 receptions this preseason for 156 yards and one touchdown with an ADP of 171 (Round 15 in a 12-team league).

That's phenomenal value, but he's that low because Gronkowski, at 6-6, 265 pounds, is the favored target in the red zone and will score more TDs. If you can learn to live with inconsistency, Hernandez is worth grabbing. But since I like week-to-week fantasy points, I would only grab him as my second tight end.

Jimmy Graham, Saints

Graham raised eyebrows late last season and is raising them again. He is clearly becoming one of QB Drew Brees' favorite targets. He's the team's leading receiver this preseason with seven receptions for 103 yards. In fact, he saw eight targets in the first half of the third preseason game against the Raiders. With his size (6-7, 260 pounds), he's an impressive red-zone target. I believe his ADP of 83 (Round Seven in a 12-team league) makes him a solid sleeper pick. He's not elite when you compare him to an Antonio Gates or Jason Witten but as big as he is, his red-zone scores will put him close to the elite players.

Julius Thomas, Broncos

Thomas has looked good, especially in the third preseason game with four receptions for 70 yards. He's also a big red -one target at 6-5, 246 pounds. He's able to stretch the field and make the highlight play. However, look for average numbers as this is a run-first team that teases with the TE position. That said, keep an eye on him because this is the most talented tight end that head coach John Fox has had. He's not being drafted so wait to see how he does in the regular season.

Source: http://www.profootballweekly.com/2011/08/29/del-pilars-digest-position-battles-and-player-anal

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