Week 16 consensus lock

Each week, the PFW staff selects three best bets against the spread. Then, it pares that list down even further and picks a lock of the week.

Here's our pick for Week 16: 

Baltimore (-3½) at Cleveland

The Browns played one of their better games of the season in Week Three at Baltimore. They overcame a 14-3 deficit to take a 17-14 lead early in the fourth quarter. Their defense forced three three-and-outs against a balanced, potent Baltimore offense. While Baltimore eventually pulled away to win 24-17, the Browns proved they could compete with the Ravens. 

However, whether the Browns can beat the Ravens is another matter altogether. Baltimore has won five straight in the series, and once again, it has some key edges over its division rival. And the variety of ways by which the Ravens seem capable of beating the Browns is probably Baltimore's greatest edge.

The Ravens, who rushed for 208 yards last week, should be able to establish the run against Cleveland, which has allowed at least 145 yards on the ground in five of the last six games. Should the Browns stack the box to stop the run, it will invite the Ravens to attack with the pass, a strategy Baltimore wouldn't hesitate to employ after QB Joe Flacco threw three TD pases to WR Anquan Boldin in the first meeting between the teams.

On defense, the Ravens will likely make stopping Browns RB Peyton Hillis a priority after he rolled for 144 yards against Baltimore back in Week Three. Should they succeed, the Browns could have a hard time scoring many points. While the Browns' passing game is at its strongest with QB Colt McCoy under center, it is still a somewhat conservative passing game, and one without the kind of field-stretching ability that the Steelers, Texans and Saints — Baltimore's last three opponents — possessed.

A strong passing game can give Baltimore fits. The Browns may have that one day with McCoy, but not now.

In the end, the Browns probably can't score enough to keep up with the Ravens, and their ability to consistently get stops against Baltimore is in doubt, too. The Ravens are the pick.

Lock of the week: Baltimore

Source: http://www.profootballweekly.com/2010/12/24/week-16-consensus-lock-2

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